Arsenal, Atlético Madrid, PSG, and Bayern Munich all stay on course for a place in the 2026 Champions League final after the first leg of the two semi-finals, where little to nothing separated the teams.

PSG holds a one-goal lead over Bayern Munich in the first semi-finals, following a thrilling 5-4 scoreline at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday night, where both teams flexed their attacking muscles but left their defensive discipline in the tunnel.

In the other semi-final, Atlético Madrid secured a draw against Arsenal to prevent back-to-back knockout home losses in the competition, following the end of their incredible unbeaten run since 1997 at the hands of Barcelona in the previous round.

How it went in the UCL semis first leg 

PSG 5-4 Bayern Munich 

Match of the year probably. It was a goal feast in the Tuesday night clash at the Parc des Princes as goalkeepers and defenders endured a horrible night, especially Manuel Neuer, who conceded five times from five shots on target.

Bayern Munich, who had not lost in their most recent three visits to Paris, including a 2-1 victory during the league phase this season, took the lead through Harry Kane, who converted from the spot after Luis Diaz was fouled in the area.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia restored parity for the host minutes later, while Joao Neves headed them in front for the first time on the night from Ousmane Dembele's corner three minutes after the hour mark.

Michael Olise continued his fine form by driving the visitors level four minutes from the break with a brilliant solo effort, but Ousmane Dembele converted a penalty in added time to ensure Luis Enrique's team head into the break in front.

PSG went on to score the next two goals after the break, with Kvaratskhelia and Dembele completing their brace before the hour mark, leaving Bayern Munich to chase not just the game but the tie.

The goals also saw the Bavarians concede five goals in a Champions League game for the first time since losing 5-2 to Ajax in the second leg of the semi-finals in the Olympic Stadium in Amsterdam in 1995.

Despite being without their suspended manager, the Bavarians found a way back with Dayot Upamecano and Luis Diaz scoring three minutes apiece before the 70th minute to ensure it's all to play for in Munich next week.

It was just the first time PSG had conceded four times in a European home game since a 4-2 defeat to Apoel Tel Aviv in the UEFA Cup, now the UEFA Europa League, in November 2006.

Atlético Madrid 1-1 Arsenal

It was a penalty apiece in the Riyadh Air Metropolitano as Diego Simeone preserved his record of never losing at home against English teams in the Champions League in seven games, boasting three wins.

Arsenal started the game much better after warding off early pressure from the host, and took a deserved lead from the spot as Viktor Gyokeres converted after winning a foul off David Hancko with half-time approaching.

Simeone made a tactical alteration after the interval, switching to a back three, and from thereon, they dominated Arsenal until the pressure paid off with a penalty of their own just before the hour mark, as Ben White was penalized for a handball.

Julian Alvarez fired a ferocious shot past David Raya to reach double digits of goals in the competition this season, with only Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé scoring more than his ten goals so far.

Arsenal thought they had another penalty after Eberechi Eze was tackled in the box by Hancko 12 minutes from time, but the decision was reversed following VAR review, and the defender was booked for dissent.

2026 Champions League favourite as per Opta

4. Atletico Madrid - 10.18%

The Spanish club has been handed the least chance of winning their first Champions League title after being held at their home by Arsenal in an evenly contested affair.

Although Diego Simeone's team has toppled Tottenham Hotspur and Barcelona in previous rounds, they return to a ground where they lost 4-0 in the league phase against an Arsenal side yet to concede at home in the knockout.

Atlético Madrid have also lost both the return legs of their knockout games so far this season, so the chances of making it to the final are more complicated than any other team.

3. Bayern Munich - 22.67%

Currently the best team on Opta's ranking, Bayern Munich still has to overturn a first-leg deficit against holders PSG to have a chance to compete in the final, which may explain why they come third here.

The Bavarians will not boast home advantage in the return leg next week, with Vincent Kompany already urging the fans to come out or pass their ticket to more healthy fans to propel the team to glory, the manager will also be back in the dugout after serving a first-leg suspension.

Bayern has lost just one of their last 30 Champions League game at the Allianz Arena, won all but one of their home games in the competition by two or more goal difference, and are unbeaten in the second leg of games.

The cancellation of the away goal rule means they still have to beat PSG with more than a goal difference to progress, but winning by one goal may still be enough, if they come out on top in a potential penalty shootout.

2. PSG - 32.25%

The defending champions are the only side to secure a win in the semi-final first-leg, but as Luis Enrique revealed his staff told him, they will have to score at least three times in Munich to be assured of a final spot. That will not be easy.

PSG's chances of retaining their title are as good as those of any of the teams ahead of them winning it, especially if they can make it into the final.

However, the clash with Bayern Munich always looks like one where each claims victory on their home turf, and after letting a three-goal lead slip into just one, they are not as favoured to progress into the final.

Yet, they are still favored to go through as things stand, but since Arsenal may have a bigger chance against Atlético Madrid, PSG will have to make do with this spot until the end of their meeting with Bayern in Munich next week Wednesday.

1. Arsenal - 34.90%

Arsenal are currently tipped to win their first-ever UEFA Champions League title after preventing defeat away to Atlético Madrid in the first leg of their semi-final on Wednesday night, but it won't come easy.

The Champions League is tricky, and the odds will definitely change at the end of the semi-finals, especially when it is clear who their opponent will be if they get the better of Atleti in the Emirates Stadium.

Their defensive resilience has been a great weapon, an aspect of the game where none of the other teams come close, especially if they avoid conceding penalties, which have made up two of their six goals conceded so far.

Arsenal have already beaten Bayern Munich during the league phase, but they must have learned that any other meeting will be different as they did last night against Atlético, and last season against PSG.

Who will win the Champions League in 2026?

As the four teams head into domestic action this weekend, Bayern Munich can afford to give rest to their best legs as the Bundesliga title has already been claimed, while Atleti are also almost assured of their priority of securing a Champions League spot in La Liga.

However, it is complicated for both Arsenal and PSG, especially the former, who must win all their remaining games in the Premier League to have a chance of winning their first title since 2004, and host Fulham at the Emirates Stadium.

For PSG, they have a six-point lead over RC Lens in the race for the Ligue 1 title ahead of the visit of Lorient this weekend, leaving Luis Enrique with a decision to make on rotation, especially with Achraf Hakimi and Lucas Chevalier already ruled out of the Munich trip.

All these circumstances will play their role in deciding the finalists, but those at home retain the advantage ahead of the second leg, while those with a lead are best positioned to progress.